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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 52
Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(13:01) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 49 for 1 yard (54-F.Warner).
The Three Options
GO
+1.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
- 27% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.35 EP
KICK
-2.16 EP
- 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.99 EP
- 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT
-1.02 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
