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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 21

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model