Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 12 – Denver Broncos 20

(4:16) 3-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.99 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP

KICK -0.31 EP

42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model