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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 54

Denver Broncos 20 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 46 for no gain (93-T.Sweat). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.07 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model