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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 12 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP