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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 53

Denver Broncos 13 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 46 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 17-C.Dike to TEN 19 for 12 yards (5-T.Sherfield). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model