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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 6-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP