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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 52

Denver Broncos 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.32 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP