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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model