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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 3-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 36 for 18 yards (3-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 41, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP