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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 61

Denver Broncos 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to TEN 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP