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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model