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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to SEA 8 for 6 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model