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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 89-L.Farrell to SEA 26 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model