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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to SF 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-81-E.Saubert. PENALTY on SF-27-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model