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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model