Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to SF 35, Center-41-C.Stoll. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 33. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at SF 34 for 1 yard (28-N.Pritchett).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.17 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model