4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 37

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model