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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 – New York Jets 32

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model