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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 26 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 7-J.Fields right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-76-J.Simpson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model