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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 77

New York Jets 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 14-A.McNamara punts 39 yards to PIT 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-47-A.Beck. PENALTY on PIT-83-Co.Heyward, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP