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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – New York Jets 19

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to NYJ 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model