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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 3-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 3-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model