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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP