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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 56

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 21 yards to LV 35, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model