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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 50

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to LV 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 1-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model