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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:56) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model