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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 72

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to LV 13, Center-47-J.Ashby. 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 30 for 17 yards (51-J.Gibbens). PENALTY on LV-44-T.Eichenberg, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model