Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 61

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

(8:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to LV 20, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-44-K.Chaisson.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model