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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 65

New England Patriots 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to LV 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.16 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP