Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New England Patriots 7

(14:21) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to NE 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-M.Jones to NE 26 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model