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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.77 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model