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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.18 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP