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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to DAL 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: DAL-29-C.Goodwin has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model