4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model