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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP