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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model