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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:41) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model