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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.85 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model