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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to CAR 31 for 3 yards (97-B.Brown; 94-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model