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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 4-T.McMillan (3-T.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.04 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model