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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to JAX 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-B.Martin-Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP