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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 5-D.Brown right end to JAX 41 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.68 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model