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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 13 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to ARI 18 for 6 yards (0-W.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.49 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP