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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model