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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to NO 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. ** Injury Update: ARI-25-Z.Collins has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model