Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

(1:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to NO 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model