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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 32-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 34 for 7 yards (58-C.Rumph; 53-J.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model