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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 32

Arizona Cardinals 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 38-C.Ryland 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model