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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 14-M.Araiza punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.89 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP